Liquidity Provider News

YES

NO

Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Polymarket shows that the Democratic Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

A federal government shutdown occurs

The provisions of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is passed into law

Israel has a new Prime Minister

Polymarket shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Kalshi shows that the Republican Party has a ≥ 65% chance of winning the Senate in the midterms

Elizabeth MacDonough is no longer Senate Parliamentarian

An NFL game ends in a tie

The first serious candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election enters the race

There is a new Prime Minister of the UK

A jury returns a verdict of guilty with respect to at least one crime charged against Luigi Mangione

Mike Johnson is out as Speaker of the House

A Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is removed from the line of succession to the British Throne

The DC Home Rule Act is repealed

The provisions of the SAVE Act are passed into law

A one point safety happens in the NFL

Legislative filibuster is abolished

The United States is in charge of at least part of Greenland

Any section of the 25th Amendment is invoked

Republicans lose a majority in the House of Representatives

YES

YES

NO

2026-27

2028-29

2030-35

After 2060 or never

2036-40

2041-50

NO

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

NO

NO

YES