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Prediction markets for List

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.32%chance

364476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1407

528

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be listed on the Wikipedia best video games of all time?

Oct 14, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.26%chance

321940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

467

What will this 6-bed Golden Beach home, listed at $3.9M, sell for by end of Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 9, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

211565

OptionProbability

Not sold by Dec 31, 2026

$3,510,000 or below

$3,510,001 – $3,899,999

$3,900,000 – $4,095,000

$4,095,001 or above

64

11

11

8

5

Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list ever be removed or broken?

Sep 18, 11:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

50%chance

241427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

829

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

30.77%chance

9959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

667

Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list be removed or broken before 2030?

Mar 11, 4:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.56%chance

17811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

967

Will linoleic acid be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:17 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

37.19%chance

7544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?

Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

70.44%chance

17348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

958

By 2028, AI can learn to efficiently sort lists of numbers much larger than in any training set used

Jan 5, 11:13 AMJan 12, 7:41 AM

85.65%chance

11289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

936

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

15250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

946

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

41%chance

3224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

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