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Prediction markets for List

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.29%chance

354375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1309

603

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be listed on the Wikipedia best video games of all time?

Oct 14, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

79.66%chance

301588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

931

Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list ever be removed or broken?

Sep 18, 11:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

50%chance

241427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

829

Will any mobile game reach a player count of 700 million players before 2027, according to Wikipedia's list?

Apr 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.16%chance

161017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

687

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

30.77%chance

9959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

667

Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list be removed or broken before 2030?

Mar 11, 4:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.56%chance

17811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

967

Will linoleic acid be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:17 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

39.04%chance

6469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will a VR video game make the Wikipedia "best of all time" list by 2030?

Nov 8, 8:36 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

70.44%chance

17348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

958

By 2028, AI can learn to efficiently sort lists of numbers much larger than in any training set used

Jan 5, 11:13 AMJan 12, 7:41 AM

84.98%chance

11280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

945

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

15250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

946

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

41%chance

3224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

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