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September 2026 AI model releases

Aug 30, 9:40 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

16744164

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash

Muse Spark 1.3 (or any Meta model)

Claude Opus 5.x

GPT-6

Grok 4.x (or any Grok/Composer model)

Claude Fable 5.x

DeepSeek V4.x (or any DeepSeek model)

Any Nvidia model

GPT-6 Sol

GPT-6 Luna

Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)

Any Mistral Model

Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)

Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)

GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)

TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)

Any model developed by fal Research

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite

Claude Sonnet 5.x

Claude Haiku 5.x

Claude Fable 5.2

Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro

Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model

GPT-5.7

GPT-6 Terra

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

64

63

43

41

33

17

17

16

15

15

13

11

7

1

1

Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030

Mar 5, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1621562

OptionProbability

Can Xue

Cristina Rivera Garza

Haruki Murakami

Mircea Cărtărescu

Enrique Vila-Matas

Gerald Murnane

Amitav Ghosh

Anne Carson

César Aira

Alexis Wright

Salman Rushdie

Elena Ferrante

Jamaica Kincaid

Michel Houellebecq

Margaret Atwood

Thomas Pynchon

Christian Kracht

Raul Zurita

Péter Nádas

Stephen King

39

34

31

30

29

27

26

26

26

26

25

25

22

21

20

20

18

18

16

13

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.47%chance

10719513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1971

727

What will be true of the Meta Quest 4

Feb 5, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

232598

OptionProbability

OS-level eye-based 'pointer' on at least one model

Multiple models of Quest 4 at release (e.g., Quest 4 Pro, Lite)

Face capture cameras on all new models

Weigh less than quest 3

Option to buy without controllers

Automatic IPD adjustment on at least one model

Any of Quest 4 models cost >$1,000

Will come in multiple color options

Any of Quest 4 models cost < $450

Hands as Controllers

Varifocal displays

Released by 2026-12-31

External front-facing display

Total pixel count greater than Apple vision Pro

Released by 2024-12-31

Released by 2025-12-31

84

67

67

62

42

42

39

39

38

34

24

15

10

8

1

1

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2026?

Oct 14, 3:26 AMNov 2, 4:59 AM

18780

OptionProbability

Announced before the end of October 2026

Can speak English

60 or older

70 or older

Writes primarily in a language other than English

normally seen in glasses

went to a school in europe at any point in life

Male

speaks Chinese

Singer/Songwriter

fled their home country

Originally from Africa

Award delayed

Originally from France

Originally from Spain

net worth over ten million USD at time of declaration

Award not accepted by winner

Given to more than one person

Award not given out

Posthumous

94

82

79

69

61

54

54

49

24

21

20

17

17

17

17

17

10

10

4

2

Will Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:13 PMOct 16, 6:59 AM

12%chance

8535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

26.4%chance

19439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

932

Will the 2026 Nobel Prize for Literature recipient be a woman?

Oct 10, 1:41 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

50.2%chance

11429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

100

Will the JWST discover exoplanets with 'carbon-lite' atmospheres in the next 15 years?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

86.4%chance

8194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

86

Will there be a sequel to Doki Doki Literature Club before EOY 2030?

Feb 21, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.68%chance

16149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

957

Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 7, 9:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.75%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

997

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