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Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030

Mar 5, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2234152

OptionProbability

Anne Carson

Can Xue

Cristina Rivera Garza

Gerald Murnane

Enrique Vila-Matas

Haruki Murakami

Amitav Ghosh

César Aira

Alexis Wright

Salman Rushdie

Mircea Cărtărescu

Elena Ferrante

Thomas Pynchon

Jamaica Kincaid

Michel Houellebecq

Margaret Atwood

Christian Kracht

Raul Zurita

Péter Nádas

Stephen King

100

41

33

32

27

26

25

25

25

24

23

23

21

21

19

18

17

17

15

11

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.47%chance

10719653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1971

727

November 2026 AI model releases

Oct 31, 11:01 PMDec 1, 12:59 AM

8112846

OptionProbability

Inkling (or any Thinking Machines model)

Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)

Gemini 4 Carbon

GPT-6.2 Astra (6.x counts)

Claude Fable 5.5 (5.2+ counts)

GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)

GPT-6.2 Sol

Muse Wonder 1.x

Grok 4.8 (or any Grok/Composer model)

Muse Spark 1.x/2.x

Nemotron 4 (or any Nemotron model)

Any Nano Banana model

MiMo V2.7 / V3 (or any MiMo model)

Claude Opus 5.6

GPT-6.2 Luna (6.x counts)

DeepSeek V4.1 Pro / V5 (or any DeepSeek model)

MiniMax M3.2 (or any MiniMax model)

Any Mistral model

Gemini 4 Flash-Lite

Claude Haiku 5.6

GPT-6.2 Terra

Gemini 4 Flash

Kimi K3.2 / K4 (or any Kimi model)

Claude Sonnet 5.6

Beam 1.x (or any Reflection model)

Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) model

100

96

95

89

86

85

80

78

74

72

71

65

63

62

57

57

53

48

40

33

32

27

19

18

17

6

What will be true of the Meta Quest 4

Feb 5, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

232598

OptionProbability

OS-level eye-based 'pointer' on at least one model

Multiple models of Quest 4 at release (e.g., Quest 4 Pro, Lite)

Face capture cameras on all new models

Weigh less than quest 3

Option to buy without controllers

Automatic IPD adjustment on at least one model

Any of Quest 4 models cost >$1,000

Will come in multiple color options

Any of Quest 4 models cost < $450

Hands as Controllers

Varifocal displays

Released by 2026-12-31

External front-facing display

Total pixel count greater than Apple vision Pro

Released by 2024-12-31

Released by 2025-12-31

84

67

67

62

42

42

39

39

38

34

24

15

10

8

1

1

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

6.66%chance

232178

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2153

949

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

21.22%chance

20689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

854

Will Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:13 PMOct 16, 6:59 AM

12%chance

8535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Advanced Literature stock

Jun 1, 11:12 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

14312

OptionProbability

NO

YES

269

214

Will the JWST discover exoplanets with 'carbon-lite' atmospheres in the next 15 years?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

86.4%chance

8194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

86

Will there be a sequel to Doki Doki Literature Club before EOY 2030?

Feb 21, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.68%chance

16149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

957

Will A2O Lite's next song achieve a perfect all-kill?

Oct 26, 8:52 PMDec 31, 8:51 PM

33.08%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 7, 9:26 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.75%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

997

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