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Prediction markets for Lite

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

773

What will be true of the Meta Quest 4

Feb 5, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

171776

OptionProbability

Released by 2026-12-31

OS-level eye-based 'pointer' on at least one model

Multiple models of Quest 4 at release (e.g., Quest 4 Pro, Lite)

Face capture cameras on all new models

Weigh less than quest 3

Automatic IPD adjustment on at least one model

Will come in multiple color options

Any of Quest 4 models cost >$1,000

Option to buy without controllers

Any of Quest 4 models cost < $450

Hands as Controllers

Varifocal displays

Released by 2025-12-31

External front-facing display

Total pixel count greater than Apple vision Pro

Released by 2024-12-31

85

77

67

67

60

47

43

42

42

38

34

29

12

10

10

2

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?

May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.95%chance

5612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Will Litecoin either drop below $50 or exceed $150 before the end of 2026?

Dec 13, 1:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.52%chance

2500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4180

3259

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

27.02%chance

19414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

941

Advanced Literature stock

Jun 1, 11:12 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

13308

OptionProbability

NO

YES

265

219

Will the JWST discover exoplanets with 'carbon-lite' atmospheres in the next 15 years?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

86.4%chance

8194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

86

Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?

Mar 23, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.34%chance

8156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

112

Will there be a sequel to Doki Doki Literature Club before EOY 2030?

Feb 21, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.24%chance

15134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

966

Will a comic book person win the nobel prize for literature before 2043?

Nov 25, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.45%chance

320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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