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Prediction markets for Live Activity

Will I live to be 150 years old?

Apr 20, 10:07 AMJun 15, 1:03 AM

19.67%chance

5731585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

861

Will I live to be 150 years old?

Apr 13, 5:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.26%chance

4423778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

936

Will I live to be 100 years old?

Mar 19, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.12%chance

5410057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

939

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 10:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.54%chance

525984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2453

130

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will I touch a “2025” penny in 2025?

Feb 10, 7:02 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

49.23%chance

151636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

985

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

28.28%chance

10861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1593

628

How old will I be when I die?

Mar 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.97%chance

27746

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1021

822

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.47%chance

7410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

709

By 2026 will Substack generally be viewed in a similar way to medium.com

Jan 13, 9:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.83%chance

7322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

780

Will ASI (if it exist and doesn’t wipe out humanity) care about people’s social relationships?

Jul 29, 12:07 AMJan 1, 1:04 AM

54.95%chance

5221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

905

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.65%chance

5207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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