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Prediction markets for Live Context

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2331706

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

50

29

9

0

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.93%chance

5811814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3127

75

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

395522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

941

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

44.42%chance

324417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

986

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58.64%chance

393749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

850

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.03%chance

733334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1583

952

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74.94%chance

252282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

157

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.57%chance

312250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

945

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

44.1%chance

291968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

633

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?

Dec 16, 3:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.96%chance

341888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

796

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2055?

Dec 24, 12:28 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29%chance

251870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

955

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

33

7

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

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