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Prediction markets for Live Context

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.17%chance

385412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

973

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.74%chance

304266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

921

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

373500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

935

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.25%chance

713252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

902

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29.6%chance

292090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

845

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.08%chance

221922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

151

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

44.46%chance

271801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1190

626

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?

Dec 16, 3:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

39%chance

321745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

750

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2055?

Dec 24, 12:28 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

44.54%chance

211094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

587

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Amtrak's Borealis service between Chicago and St. Paul–Minneapolis adds another daily train before the end of 2030?

Jan 12, 2:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

2123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

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