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Prediction markets for Live Context

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2333334

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

39

15

5

0

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.47%chance

5812082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3729

43

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

61

23

8

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

395522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

941

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

42.94%chance

324443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

960

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58.64%chance

393749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

850

If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?

Mar 13, 5:32 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20.03%chance

733334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1583

952

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.41%chance

312331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

821

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74.94%chance

252282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

157

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

46.19%chance

291998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1214

596

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?

Dec 16, 3:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

39.09%chance

341918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

748

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2055?

Dec 24, 12:28 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29%chance

251870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

955

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