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Prediction markets for Llama AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.26%chance

321858480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6979

3610

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

11.11%chance

397364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2602

186

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.58%chance

365551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4800

4210

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

8.43%chance

394420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3296

303

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

94.68%chance

173443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4220

237

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Feb 15, 7:31 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

251335

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2025 or earlier

In 2024

70

68

65

63

60

20

0

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.87%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

732

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2030

Mar 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4151

OptionProbability

Above 0 months

Above 2 months

Above 6 months

Above 12 months

Above 24 months

Above 48 months

71

67

65

56

19

6

How many active parameters will the largest Llama 3 have?

Jan 22, 2:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.53%chance

6102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

68

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

472

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

80

50

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