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Prediction markets for Llama AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

322858510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6769

3640

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Feb 15, 7:31 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

261345

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

73

68

65

63

60

0

0

[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2027

Mar 24, 1:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2275

OptionProbability

Above 0 months

Above 2 months

Above 6 months

Above 12 months

Above 24 months

Above 48 months

82

72

50

26

6

2

[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2030

Mar 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5266

OptionProbability

Above 0 months

Above 2 months

Above 6 months

Above 12 months

Above 24 months

Above 48 months

85

81

76

70

62

6

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

472

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

80

50

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