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Prediction markets for Llama AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.28%chance

344879198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4502

3083

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2027

Mar 24, 1:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2275

OptionProbability

Above 0 months

Above 2 months

Above 6 months

Above 12 months

Above 24 months

Above 48 months

82

72

50

26

6

2

Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?

Sep 11, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.25%chance

9269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

42

[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2030

Mar 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5266

OptionProbability

Above 0 months

Above 2 months

Above 6 months

Above 12 months

Above 24 months

Above 48 months

85

81

76

70

62

6

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.89%chance

7161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

86

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7109

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

82

54

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