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Prediction markets for LLM

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

113369539

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

20

20

19

9

5

2

1

1

1

0

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?

Aug 15, 2:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.59%chance

718252383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18950

2072

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

117125589

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

None listed here

Meta

71

20

5

2

2

1

What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

Jan 6, 5:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57108962

OptionProbability

Google / DeepMind

OpenAI

xAI / Grok

Anthropic / Claude

DeepSeek

Meta / Facebook

Other

79

16

2

1

1

0

0

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Aug 15, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.34%chance

24384931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4136

3435

Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

Mar 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

92.62%chance

18550247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3543

282

Which AI companies will release a SoTA LLM on AidanBench in 2025?

Dec 28, 11:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1131015

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

xAI

Anthropic

Any Chinese Company

100

20

7

6

6

Can LLM generate a Lonpos puzzle solution before the end of 2025?

Nov 14, 1:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.79%chance

1210909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20791

4810

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Aug 25, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.09%chance

536425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3162

316

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.13%chance

164245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

142880

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

64

52

40

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