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Prediction markets for LLM

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

117369894

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

10

7

5

2

1

0

0

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

89.45%chance

159141024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4067

903

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Aug 15, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.6%chance

25390981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4280

3576

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

659608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11983

8345

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

19

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.06%chance

215232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1880

532

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.44%chance

244056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

571

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Jun 12, 10:01 PMJan 1, 3:46 AM

81.83%chance

483281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2100

258

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

Can an LLM be funny in 2026?

Jan 1, 3:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.61%chance

10610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

934

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