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Prediction markets for LLM

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

116369729

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

8

7

5

4

1

0

0

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Aug 15, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.49%chance

25290776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4075

3694

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

174855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1613

620

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.9%chance

234031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

579

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Jun 12, 10:01 PMJan 1, 3:46 AM

78.53%chance

483131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1950

295

In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Feb 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.6%chance

601782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

1008

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 6:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.2%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

744

Can an LLM be funny in 2026?

Jan 1, 3:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

46.61%chance

10610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

934

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