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Prediction markets for LLM

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

20

19

19

10

9

8

4

2

0

0

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

88.09%chance

159141369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3721

947

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Aug 15, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.6%chance

25390981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4280

3576

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.19%chance

7516049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12043

8303

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166776

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

18

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.06%chance

215232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1880

532

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.96%chance

254081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1778

563

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

91.72%chance

193739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3341

301

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Jun 12, 10:01 PMJan 1, 3:46 AM

82.95%chance

503602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2158

246

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

29.41%chance

141738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

646

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

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