LLM Comparator News

What is Quroe's favorite animal?

Dec 14, 11:53 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

6863788

OptionProbability

Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer

Wolverine - Gulo gulo 🥉🥉

Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina 🥉

Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus

Coyote - Canis latrans

[⚔️Underdog] Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria 🥉🥉

Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius

Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉

House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus

[⚔️Frontrunner] Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris

❌Defeated: Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉[beat by Dolphin]

❌Defeated: Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus [beat by Giant Nematode]

❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]

❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]

❌Defeated: Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]

❌Defeated: Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus 🥉 [beat by Leopard Seal]

❌Defeated: Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈[beat by Giant Nematode]

❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]

❌Defeated: Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri 🥉 [beat by Wolverine]

❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]

❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈 [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]

❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]

🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum

❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]

🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)

❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]

🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]

❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]

❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

❌Defeated: Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima 🥉🥉 [beat by Wolverine]

❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈

❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]

❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]

❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]

❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]

❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]

❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]

❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]

❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]

❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]

❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]

❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]

❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]

❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]

❌Defeated: Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait]

❌Defeated: Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Tiger]

❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]

❌Defeated: Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]

❌Defeated: Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Penguin]

❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]

❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]

❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]

❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]

Other

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

3224

310

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.07%chance

543421

OptionVotes

YES

2055

707

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

1014

884

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

YES

1853

540

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14305

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Jun 1, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.42%chance

7289

OptionVotes

YES

1165

858

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Sep 30, 2:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5264

OptionProbability

Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro 0-4 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro ≥9 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro scores higher than the prior leading model

Which company will have the #1 Chatbot Arena model before January 1, 2027?

Aug 1, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

10168

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

Other

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

Sep 9, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10154

OptionProbability

Yes, by 2100

Will LLM based systems have debugging ability comparable to a human by 2030?

Feb 21, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.8%chance

9111

OptionVotes

YES

167

Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

Nov 29, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.39%chance

275

OptionVotes

YES

155

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Prediction markets for LLM Comparator

Prediction markets for LLM Comparator

Prediction markets for LLM Comparator

What is Quroe's favorite animal?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Which company will have the #1 Chatbot Arena model before January 1, 2027?

Will Chatgpt-type Chatbots become permanent part of our daily lives before 2100?

Will LLM based systems have debugging ability comparable to a human by 2030?

Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

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