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OptionProbability
He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released
He leaves Argentina during his first term
He travels to Chile during his first term
He travels to Brazil during his first term
He is photographed with Elon Musk
A photo of him with Trump is released
A photo of Milei with Biden is released
His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position
Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?
Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]
Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better
His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered
Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]
According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]
Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%
There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.
He wins reelection to a 2nd term
Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]
LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place
LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?
He travels to Bolivia
A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him
Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term
Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)
He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal
He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX
Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup
Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]
He goes incommunicado for at least a week
Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)
Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish
He marries during his first term
He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term
US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina
He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week
There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired
He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it
Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years
Will he ever be TIME person of the year?
He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]
Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup
He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]
The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office
Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees
The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use
He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office
Argentina will win the 2026 world cup
He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election
He travels to Russia during his first term
He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash
Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?
He has a child during his first term
He is excommunicated by the catholic church
Argentina will declare war
He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]
He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]
He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash
He passes away during his first term before completion
There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side
Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week
He officially converts to Judaism
Will Argentina join BRICS?
Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)
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OptionProbability
The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.
xAI IPO
FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%
FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%
Anthropic releases Claude 5
Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly
OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product
Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong
OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form
Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI
Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026
Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year
The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours
An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T
I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.
Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks
Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025
Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins
Anthropic IPO
Thinking Machines will train and release their own model
Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year
SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates
A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI
Google will outperform the S&P
The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours
OpenAI releases GPT-6
OpenAI IPO
Nvidia will outperform the S&P
Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170
My median ASI timelines will shorten
Grok 5 will be released
I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence
I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning
I will meet someone who has an AI companion
At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike
I will ride on a tesla robotaxi
Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP
There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI
ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%
Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind
An LLM will beat me at chess
Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030
Anthropic releases Claude 6
Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.
There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive
Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired
Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4
Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/
There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy
My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)
There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild
An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance
An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters
SSI will release a product
Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy
The bubble collapses in devastating fashion
AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam
I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting
The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked
SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round
The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china
I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.
I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark
An LLM will beat me at Shogi
There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people
An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T
SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round
An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category
Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data
There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies
Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI
Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5
OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers
I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.
Grok 6 will be released
Anthropic will release an image/video model
SSI will be valued at >= $100B
I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour
Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.
Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form
Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185
An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B
Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI
China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus
I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week
S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%
Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP
Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200
Yudkowsky will publish a new book
SSI IPO
S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%
US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI
SSI will be valued at >= $1 T
GPT-4o remains available to free ChatGPT users at the end of the year
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OptionProbability
Anthropic
OpenAI
DeepSeek
xAI
Moonshot AI
Other
Meta
Mistral AI
Alibaba
MiniMax
Z.ai
65
12
10
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
GPT-4.5
Grok 3
91
9
OptionVotes
YES
NO
273
40