LLM Ops News

Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

70.23%chance

244316

OptionVotes

YES

1536

651

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Dec 19, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

472267

OptionProbability

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

Provided with a detailed strategy, execute a cyberattack against a hardened target.

Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?

Aug 5, 5:44 PMAug 5, 5:44 PM

37.78%chance

161964

OptionVotes

YES

1283

779

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Feb 15, 7:31 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

261345

OptionProbability

In 2030 or earlier

In 2029 or earlier

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

Aug 2, 11:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8950

OptionProbability

Q3-Q4 2024

2025

Q1-Q2 2024

Q4 2023

2026

Other

Q3 2023

Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Apr 14, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

7479

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.17%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

1300

769

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

18.66%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

246

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

1020

981

Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030?

May 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

59.02%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.91%chance

656

OptionVotes

YES

124

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for LLM Ops

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Prediction markets for LLM Ops

Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030?

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

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