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Prediction markets for LLM Ops

Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM

Sep 16, 3:36 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

176506

OptionProbability

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

February 2026

May 2026

March 2026

April 2026

June 2026

August 2026

July 2026

January 2026

100

100

100

100

100

75

74

74

70

63

60

0

Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

70.23%chance

244316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

651

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?

Aug 5, 5:44 PMAug 5, 5:44 PM

29.88%chance

151666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1532

653

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

Aug 2, 11:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8815

OptionProbability

Q3-Q4 2024

2025

Q1-Q2 2024

Other

Q4 2023

2026

Q3 2023

89

6

2

2

1

1

0

Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?

Oct 3, 8:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.71%chance

25654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Feb 27, 11:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12566

OptionProbability

Other

1 month

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

1 week

6 months

28

27

19

10

8

8

Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?

Oct 3, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.97%chance

13246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

64

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Will a SOTA open-sourced LLM forecasting system make major use of quasilinguistic neural reps (QNRs) before 2027?

Apr 25, 8:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.32%chance

2136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

82

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

47.56%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

58.89%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

60

42

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