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Prediction markets for LLM Ops

Which months will Google OR OpenAI OR Anthropic release a new LLM

Sep 16, 3:36 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

2613153

OptionProbability

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

97

87

0

Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?

Aug 5, 5:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

304889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

893

Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?

Aug 5, 5:44 PMAug 5, 5:44 PM

37.78%chance

161964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?

Oct 3, 8:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.55%chance

321473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

66

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

Aug 2, 11:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8950

OptionProbability

Q3-Q4 2024

2025

Q1-Q2 2024

Q4 2023

2026

Other

Q3 2023

89

6

2

1

1

1

0

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Feb 27, 11:49 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12566

OptionProbability

Other

1 month

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

3 months

1 week

6 months

28

27

19

10

8

8

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.78%chance

3310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?

Oct 3, 8:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

15279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

18.66%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

82

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030?

May 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

59.02%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

82

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

36

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