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Prediction markets for LLMs

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

369133327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Jan 15, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.68%chance

779979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

936

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Feb 13, 3:50 PMJun 30, 9:00 PM

91.46%chance

564161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2104

812

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

292050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

712

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

Dec 18, 4:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.07%chance

411375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

707

Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?

Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

24.38%chance

261003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

932

Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2035?

Nov 8, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.5%chance

5756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1409

710

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.29%chance

20702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

867

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?

Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

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