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Prediction markets for LLMs

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.63%chance

399151007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9031

5995

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Jan 15, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.97%chance

8110813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

509

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

292050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

712

Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?

Jun 13, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.25%chance

191572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

581

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

Dec 18, 4:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.07%chance

411375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

707

Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?

Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

23.31%chance

271053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

917

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.08%chance

161027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

977

Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2035?

Nov 8, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.4%chance

5899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

789

Will "Machinic Psychopharmacology: Do LLMs Self-Med..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 7:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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