OptionProbability
Available in Claude Code at launch
Will Sonnet 5 be available on the free Claude tier at launch?
Outperforms Opus 4.5 in WebDev on LMArena
400k+ token context window
50% if significantly better than Sonnet 4.5, YES if significantly better than Opus 4.5 (President's judgement)
Will Claude Sonnet 5 debut in the LM Arena Top 3 overall within 7 days of release?
1M+ token context window
Releases Feb 5th
"agent swarm" or other more sophisticated multi agent scheme released/announced with launch.
Will Sonnet 5 reach #1 overall on LM Arena at any point within 14 days?
Any image generation tool included with the release (nano banana type thing, not gif's)
Sonnet 4.x will be released, not Sonnet 5
1.5M+ token context window
Will Sonnet 5 be #1 overall-no-style-control on LM Arena when first added to the leaderboard
Releases Feb 4th
releases today before 1pm ET (feb 3rd)
Releases today at all (feb 3)
Releases before 2pm EST
Releases before 3pm est
Releases before 4pm EST
Reseases before 1pm Feb 4th
Reseases before 2pm Feb 4th
Reseases before 3pm Feb 4th
98
88
81
79
77
67
65
42
37
26
25
14
8
7
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2015
496
241
6 - 10
1 - 5
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 25
26 - 30
Above 30
33
19
15
9
6
