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Lobby News

    Prediction markets for Lobby

    Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

    Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    3%chance
    26155752

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    60647

    2307

    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    "lower taxes"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

    100

    82

    74

    71

    71

    66

    63

    63

    63

    63

    58

    57

    56

    51

    50

    45

    45

    44

    44

    42

    42

    42

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    37

    36

    36

    36

    35

    34

    33

    31

    31

    31

    30

    27

    27

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    19

    18

    18

    17

    16

    16

    13

    11

    7

    0

    OptionProbability

    $1bn - $10bn

    $10bn - $50bn

    Less than $1bn

    $50bn - $100bn

    More than $100bn

    29

    29

    22

    11

    9

    By 2034, will at least 1 major tech company lobby for nuclear power?

    Mar 5, 2:48 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM
    94.01%chance
    201137

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1949

    843

    How far will the live-action One Piece go?

    Mar 24, 12:12 AMMar 23, 10:02 PM
    11911

    OptionProbability

    Alabasta Saga

    Sky Island Saga

    Water 7 (& Ennies Lobby)

    Sabaody Archipelago

    Amazon Lily

    Impel Down

    Marineford Arc (& Post War)

    Fish-Man Island

    Thriller Bark

    Punk Hazard

    Wano

    Dressrosa

    Egg Head

    Zou

    Whole Cake Island (& Reverie)

    Elbaf

    97

    75

    53

    47

    46

    45

    45

    44

    43

    43

    41

    40

    37

    35

    35

    29

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1129

    848

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1074

    917

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    127

    79

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    227

    221

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1100

    985

    Outcome of Threads Joining the Fediverse

    Jul 14, 6:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    681

    OptionProbability

    Other

    A portion of Fediverse nodes block Threads, either a portion of a particular type of platform such as Mastodon, or certain types of platforms become open to Threads, just on their own, with little intervention from Threads, it just happens

    Meta starts funding Fediverse nodes and maintainers via grants, pays to maintain servers in exchange for not blocking Threads/Meta.

    Complete, all-out pitch battle in which large portion of Fediverse protocols and nodes absolutely unify against blocking Threads and anything that smells of Meta.

    Threads users complain about unsavory Fediverse content leaking in. Non-Threads content is ultimately blocked for most practical purposes, and the integration feature atrophies.

    There’s more of a virtue signaling about blocking Threads across the Fediverse, but little actual action. The actual cost of Fediverse users actually preventing Threads from engaging in nodes just far outweighs the perceived threat.

    Meta does like spoofing users which are actually just straight up Meta bots that crawl nodes and hoovering up user data. They use their high end programming resources to just crush any resistance through subterfuge.

    Meta Entryism, they pay users, influencers, prominent individuals, either above board or below or both, to constantly post propaganda bout how Meta is a changed man and anyone who is against them is against the Fediverse and anything it sta

    Meta elite or academic capture strategy. Meta ups their lobbying and sponsorship of thought organizations, including NPR, Universities, etc. Being pro-Fediverse without Meta’s help becomes seen as either potentially pro-pedophelia, ...

    29

    19

    19

    14

    9

    5

    2

    2

    2

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