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Prediction markets for Lobby
OptionVotes
60647
2307
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
Jan 24, 11:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
968242
OptionProbability
100
82
74
71
71
66
63
63
63
63
58
57
56
51
50
45
45
44
44
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
39
39
37
36
36
36
35
34
33
31
31
31
30
27
27
26
26
25
24
23
19
18
18
17
16
16
13
11
7
0
Before 2032, how much will be spent lobbying against regulation of General AI systems? (2024$, best guess)
Jul 2, 2:52 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
32848
OptionProbability
29
29
22
11
9
By 2034, will at least 1 major tech company lobby for nuclear power?
Mar 5, 2:48 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM
94.01%chance
201137
OptionVotes
1949
843
OptionProbability
97
75
53
47
46
45
45
44
43
43
41
40
37
35
35
29
Will the hole at Enies Lobby be revealed as the location of the Ancient Kingdom?
Aug 5, 4:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
46.29%chance
14894
OptionVotes
1129
848
Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035
Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.62%chance
12232
OptionVotes
1074
917
Will any american left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations be shut down before 2050?
Sep 10, 11:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.26%chance
12169
OptionVotes
127
79
Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
53.7%chance
7130
OptionVotes
227
221
Will "AI Lobbying is Not Normal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 21, 5:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.72%chance
1100
OptionVotes
1100
985
OptionProbability
29
19
19
14
9
5
2
2
2
Will the Three-Tier system of alcohol regulation be meaningfully reformed or dismantled before 2030?
Mar 27, 9:00 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
37.17%chance
115
OptionVotes
85
58


