Local AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

YES

7852

5623

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

4765967

OptionVotes

YES

130486

84436

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Feb 10, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

15%chance

19133560

OptionVotes

YES

2373

432

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

14639

6831

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Jan 26, 7:19 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

386900

OptionProbability

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)

Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US

Major armed conflict between world powers breaks out (World War 3)

Encountering a humanoid robot in public and not being surprised

Any government in the world (local, regional, national) is run by an AI system

Revolutionary breakthrough in fusion energy

Global digital currency replaces traditional banking systems

Space tourism/travel becomes commercially viable for middle class

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.72%chance

54859

OptionVotes

YES

10466

9555

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

453347

OptionVotes

YES

1587

228

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will CO2 pass a daily average of 432.55 ppm at Mauna Loa on any day in 2026?

Mar 31, 4:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.98%chance

1105

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

Nov 2, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

161

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Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will CO2 pass a daily average of 432.55 ppm at Mauna Loa on any day in 2026?

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

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