Local AI News

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

92.28%chance

75857043

OptionVotes

YES

362974

30273

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.73%chance

25163138

OptionVotes

YES

23558

4245

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.18%chance

295113284

OptionVotes

YES

9857

5494

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

15025

6656

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Jan 26, 7:19 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

386915

OptionProbability

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)

Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US

Major armed conflict between world powers breaks out (World War 3)

Encountering a humanoid robot in public and not being surprised

Any government in the world (local, regional, national) is run by an AI system

Revolutionary breakthrough in fusion energy

Global digital currency replaces traditional banking systems

Space tourism/travel becomes commercially viable for middle class

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.27%chance

493685

OptionVotes

YES

1925

127

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.95%chance

25490

OptionVotes

YES

1289

892

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.43%chance

7213

OptionVotes

YES

1011

989

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

Nov 2, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.47%chance

391

OptionVotes

YES

191

What month do you think that Barracuda 2.0 in Okeechobee Florida closes down as in out of business or sold?

Oct 6, 4:38 PMOct 6, 4:36 PM

OptionProbability

October

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

Local AI News

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

What month do you think that Barracuda 2.0 in Okeechobee Florida closes down as in out of business or sold?

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