Local AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

57414

10596

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.54%chance

9739221

OptionVotes

YES

2045

1669

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Feb 10, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

15.44%chance

19133145

OptionVotes

YES

2332

439

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Jan 26, 7:19 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

386900

OptionProbability

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)

Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US

Major armed conflict between world powers breaks out (World War 3)

Encountering a humanoid robot in public and not being surprised

Any government in the world (local, regional, national) is run by an AI system

Revolutionary breakthrough in fusion energy

Global digital currency replaces traditional banking systems

Space tourism/travel becomes commercially viable for middle class

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

453347

OptionVotes

YES

1587

228

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.96%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

2850

351

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

YES

1214

837

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

1664

878

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.93%chance

23426

OptionVotes

YES

1231

907

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

Nov 2, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

161

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Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

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