Local AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

19.85%chance

796429524

OptionVotes

YES

34977

14290

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

2190

891

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Jan 26, 7:19 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

376222

OptionProbability

Encountering a humanoid robot in public and not being surprised

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)

Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US

Major armed conflict between world powers breaks out (World War 3)

Any government in the world (local, regional, national) is run by an AI system

Revolutionary breakthrough in fusion energy

Global digital currency replaces traditional banking systems

Space tourism/travel becomes commercially viable for middle class

[M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)?

Sep 28, 9:56 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

18%chance

444925

OptionVotes

YES

1959

452

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.1%chance

443342

OptionVotes

YES

1599

223

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

YES

1214

837

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

23.61%chance

111128

OptionVotes

YES

1799

556

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)

Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.66%chance

9915

OptionVotes

YES

591

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)

Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.78%chance

7772

OptionVotes

YES

432

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

1664

878

Will AI be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035?

Mar 26, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6%chance

15462

OptionVotes

YES

1336

941

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.93%chance

23426

OptionVotes

YES

1231

907

Local AI News

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

[M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)?

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Will AI be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035?

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

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