Local AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

58014

10529

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

7727390

OptionVotes

YES

1950

1882

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Jan 26, 7:19 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

386885

OptionProbability

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)

Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US

Major armed conflict between world powers breaks out (World War 3)

Encountering a humanoid robot in public and not being surprised

Revolutionary breakthrough in fusion energy

Any government in the world (local, regional, national) is run by an AI system

Global digital currency replaces traditional banking systems

Space tourism/travel becomes commercially viable for middle class

[M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)?

Sep 28, 9:56 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

15.13%chance

485959

OptionVotes

YES

2179

409

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

453347

OptionVotes

YES

1587

228

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.96%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

2850

351

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Jan 23, 9:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.44%chance

531613

OptionVotes

YES

1214

837

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.42%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

1664

878

Will AI be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035?

Mar 26, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.78%chance

15512

OptionVotes

YES

1386

938

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Mar 24, 8:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.93%chance

23426

OptionVotes

YES

1231

907

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

Nov 2, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

161

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Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

[M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)?

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?

Will AI be able to vote, in any U.S. jurisdiction, by 2035?

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

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