Local AI News

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

73829372

OptionVotes

YES

252397

43577

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

69114

9469

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.92%chance

22148695

OptionVotes

YES

16006

6248

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.16%chance

26682672

OptionVotes

YES

8636

4842

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

15025

6656

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Jan 26, 7:19 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

386900

OptionProbability

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)

Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US

Major armed conflict between world powers breaks out (World War 3)

Encountering a humanoid robot in public and not being surprised

Any government in the world (local, regional, national) is run by an AI system

Revolutionary breakthrough in fusion energy

Global digital currency replaces traditional banking systems

Space tourism/travel becomes commercially viable for middle class

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

453347

OptionVotes

YES

1587

228

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

1500

841

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will CO2 pass a daily average of 432.55 ppm at Mauna Loa on any day in 2026?

Mar 31, 4:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.08%chance

2130

OptionVotes

YES

1130

885

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

Nov 2, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

161

Local AI News

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

Prediction markets for Local AI

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will CO2 pass a daily average of 432.55 ppm at Mauna Loa on any day in 2026?

AI + tariffs split pharma into "local stacks" by 2040?

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