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Top stories

Microsoft Encampment Spurs 18 Arrests as Workers Decry Israel Cloud Contracts

Microsoft Encampment Spurs 18 Arrests as Workers Decry Israel Cloud Contracts

Authors

25

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Local Call

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4973582

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

17

0

0

0

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.53%chance

241296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

550

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

Will the UK government approve the proposed Chinese embassy at the Royal Mint before 2026?

Oct 17, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

8830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.32%chance

4743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

582

Will any United States elected official call for the release of Luigi Mangione by the end of 2025?

Dec 13, 6:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.35%chance

19698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4655

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

15

15

15

15

15

12

9

4

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

672

At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?

Feb 16, 1:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.91%chance

11411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1149

928

Will the UK government approve the proposed Chinese embassy at the Royal Mint before 2027?

Oct 17, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.76%chance

3318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

358

28

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

25.84%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

58

Will any municipality in Northern Italy move to an autonomous region by 2030?

Aug 3, 4:34 PMDec 4, 4:59 AM

62.17%chance

691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

117

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