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Top stories

Microsoft Encampment Spurs 18 Arrests as Workers Decry Israel Cloud Contracts

Microsoft Encampment Spurs 18 Arrests as Workers Decry Israel Cloud Contracts

Authors

25

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Local Call

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

60.94%chance

6212694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4940

3257

Will X (Twitter) be banned in Australia in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.72%chance

233396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3727

269

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.54%chance

63393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2425

412

Will any current Labour MP call for Keir Starmer to stand down after the local elections?

Apr 30, 8:43 AMMay 14, 11:59 PM

86.28%chance

211903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2508

399

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Senate race in Maine?

Nov 26, 3:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.11%chance

351580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

50

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

17.9%chance

21300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2150

471

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

42.35%chance

32874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

691

At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?

Feb 16, 1:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.91%chance

11411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1149

928

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

32.85%chance

8196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

68

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9]

May 6, 6:22 PMMay 20, 6:22 PM

57.18%chance

732

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

87

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