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Prediction markets for Localized

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

67.18%chance

36731347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2725

1880

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Jan 7, 7:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.07%chance

454410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2270

225

Credible evidence of pre-arranged local support for Venezuela regime change (news media 2026)

Jan 3, 10:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.83%chance

282931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

384

62

Will a voice assistant be able to run locally on a smartphone by 2030 ?

Dec 28, 11:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.91%chance

151286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

942

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

674

How many City Mayor and County Magistrate elections will the DPP win in the 2026 Taiwan Local Elections?

Dec 23, 4:06 AMDec 23, 3:59 PM

1653

OptionProbability

7

4

6

5

0-1

2

3

8

9-10

11-13

14-17

18-22

18

17

15

14

6

6

6

6

6

2

2

1

Will vegan shrimp be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Jan 21, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.51%chance

24549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

811

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

672

Will the Tanger Ville to Tarifa ferry on April 1 leave at 8am local time?

Feb 3, 9:42 PMApr 1, 8:00 AM

85.66%chance

4321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

244

41

Will Tumbles become convinced that local realism is false before 2027? (quantum physics)

Jan 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 12:20 PM

77.07%chance

280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

88

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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