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Prediction markets for Logging

Does there exist a sorting algorithm with average time complexity better than O(n * log(n)) on a list of integers?

Nov 21, 5:39 AMNov 28, 4:59 AM

96.95%chance

305975

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3048

657

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

72461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4576

2499

Will at least one Major League Baseball pitcher log 300 or more strikeouts in the 2025 regular season?

Jan 13, 4:48 AMOct 5, 4:59 AM

19.84%chance

82203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

By which years will AI be shown to have a better log loss than the Metaculus community pred. on <= 1 year predictions?

Feb 23, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

261494

OptionProbability

2030

2028

2027

2029

2026

2025

2024

70

63

61

61

45

19

7

Will a sorting algorithm faster than n*log(n) be found before 2030?

Jun 19, 12:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.57%chance

191493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

858

Court order demanding OpenAI log deleted chats reversed by EOY2025?

Jun 5, 6:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

50.22%chance

9869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

996

How many of my predictions in "Markets for Lemons and the Great Logging Off" will come to pass by the end of 2027?

Dec 26, 3:38 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

64.57%chance

22807

OptionProbability

YES

NO

992

986

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

By 2030, will there be credible claims that Mullvad VPN logs user activity?

Mar 26, 7:09 AMDec 1, 8:00 AM

21.76%chance

688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

116

Is the Log-rank conjecture true?

Mar 24, 8:11 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

73.27%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

58

Will I log into manifold 10 years from now?

May 25, 3:46 PMMay 25, 11:59 PM

37.85%chance

849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

111

How many (total) parameters does the Claude3 Haiku (the smallest variant) have? (resolve to log_10(N))

Mar 30, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

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