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Prediction markets for Long

How long (in months) will patio11’s sabbatical be?

Jun 8, 6:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3520932

Will we have cheap long-distance jet packs by 2030?🔥

Jul 18, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.13%chance

523832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

937

How Long will King Charles reign?

May 7, 7:10 AMMay 7, 8:59 PM

16.52%chance

333367

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1629

773

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.98%chance

351217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

912

Will Dick Cheney live long enough to see Monkey D. Luffy find the One Piece?

Nov 30, 3:33 PMJan 8, 4:59 AM

38.74%chance

31836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2031

1975

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1097

737

How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?

Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28%chance

19558

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1073

697

On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year

Nov 27, 11:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.2%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

961

Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?

Jul 23, 4:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.38%chance

12497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

979

Sudden jump in AI long-horizon capabilities (1-4 hr version)

Aug 19, 5:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.6%chance

6484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

740

Is human civilization compatible with computers in the long term?

Mar 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.81%chance

12263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

978

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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