Long March News
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Prediction markets for Long March
OptionVotes
11813
4195
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
86
83
76
66
66
55
46
38
34
34
30
24
24
21
17
12
11
10
10
10
10
8
8
6
4
4
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
1152
744
When will the Long March 10 rocket first reach orbit? (Quarters)
Aug 19, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52049
OptionProbability
99
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM
62.32%chance
271265
OptionVotes
1469
448
Which will be the first Chinese orbital-class reusable rocket stage to land vertically?
Nov 29, 12:31 PMNov 29, 12:26 PM
61243
OptionProbability
96
3
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
79
11
8
1
Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?
Jun 5, 12:15 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM
34.58%chance
12540
OptionVotes
1375
727
Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)
Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
43.33%chance
5398
OptionVotes
1144
874
Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?
Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM
45.8%chance
5122
OptionVotes
1093
924
Will CALT's Long March 10 rocket carry crew to the moon before 2035?
Sep 17, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
75%chance
6114
OptionVotes
185
67
OptionVotes
119
101