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Prediction markets for Lost

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Binance? (Before 2030)

May 23, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.97%chance

2210553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

967

797

Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)

Oct 21, 11:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.82%chance

73025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4023

249

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Will a person get lost in space by 2035?

Sep 13, 10:33 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

17.61%chance

271359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

859

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.32%chance

18994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

919

Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026

Jan 29, 5:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.76%chance

11756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

796

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

32.69%chance

3470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2470

1679

Will any notable lost art be recovered by the end of 2029?

Sep 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.28%chance

15377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

974

Will "Canada Lost Its Measles Elimination Status Be..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 26, 7:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.37%chance

3300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

264

Will the lost arcade game Bouncer be found before 2035?

Apr 2, 4:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.26%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Has John Carmack lost more than 2 IQ points due to toxins from all the diet coke he has been drinking?

Oct 5, 4:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.06%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

119

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