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Prediction markets for Lost

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Binance? (Before 2030)

May 23, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.97%chance

2210553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

967

797

Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)

Oct 21, 11:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.82%chance

73025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4023

249

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Will a person get lost in space by 2035?

Sep 13, 10:33 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

18.7%chance

241302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

807

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.32%chance

18994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

919

Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026

Jan 29, 5:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.76%chance

11756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

796

What probability will I assign to the Bnei Menashe being a lost tribe of Israel in 6 months?

Nov 2, 9:15 AMMay 1, 9:14 AM

33.47%chance

2420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2420

1704

Will any notable lost art be recovered by the end of 2029?

Sep 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.43%chance

14375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

972

Will "Canada Lost Its Measles Elimination Status Be..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 26, 7:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.37%chance

3300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

264

Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, claim to have lost a friend due to denied claim or similar?

Dec 6, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.67%chance

11279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

41

Will any of these five lost films be rediscovered before November 2026?

Dec 12, 6:53 AMNov 2, 7:59 AM

33.98%chance

529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

94

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