OptionProbability
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
Iran strikes US bases
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
The US launches airstrikes
Oil futures exceed 80.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
The US launches airstrikes on March 7 (UTC)
The Strait of Hormuz is mined
Any state bordering the Persian Gulf launches an attack on Iran
Oil futures exceed 100.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
US ground troops enter Iran
Significant protests are reported in February and March
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is killed
There is a full week without airstrikes or other notable combat in March
100
11
6
5
2
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1613
1128
1154
867
169
59
166
60
