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OptionProbability
Trump will mention how beautiful a woman is, that is NOT Melania.
Press conference happens.
Does a hand gesture (any)
Mentions anything about the US Space Force (eg. Space Command moving from Colorado to Alabama)
Trump mentions China
Starts at 2:15PM EST or later
Trump says the word "The"
Trump says a word with the letter E in it
Is wearing a red tie
Starts at 2:30PMEST or later
The announcemnet stream is added to Manifold's sidebar
Vance speaks at all
Anyone other than Trump or Vance speak (excluding reporters)
Says the word “special”
Trump speaks from within the United States
Trump appears on stream by 3 p.m. ET
Creator extends closing time of this market
Trump appears on stream by 2:50 p.m. ET
This market has over 200 answers
Says “Hegseth”
Total trading volume on this market exceeds 30K
>1.5k trades on this market
Says “Canada”
Says name of any sitting US Congressman or Senator
Trump appears on stream by 3:10 pm ET
Mentions any current Cabinet secretary
Trump announces Space Command moves from Colorado to Alabama
≥5 people speak
Mentions his health
Trump answers at least 1 question
Trump mentions Russia
Addresses or mentions internet "Trump is Dead" rumors
Trump mentions any previous president
Says “drugs”
Trump uses a word that is four syllables or more
Trump mentions Venezuela
Says “love” or “lover” or any variant
Says “million” or “billion”
Criticises one or more judge / judicial ruling
Says the word “wall”
Department of Defense mentioned
Anyone mentions a specific sport
≥8 people speak
Trump mentions J.D. Vance
This market gets 100 traders or more
Mentions border control/policy
Trump speaks and answers questions for more than 10 minutes
It's not exclusively focused on the Space Force
Says “friend” or “friends” or “friendship”
Says “frankly”
Answers at least 5 questions
Mentions crime
Says “fight” or variant
At least one option on this market is not resolved by 9/4 12:01am ET
Mentions a sitting US Governor
Says “astronaut”
Names any specific world leader
12% This stays the #1 market on manifold until end of press conference
Says “war”
Mentions Biden's health
Will be longer then 30 mins.
Trump uses a word that is five syllables or more
Mentions Los Angeles
Says “Mexico”
Says the word “dollar”
Says the word “freedom”
Manifold HATES what is said (poll after market)
Says “California”
Says “president”
Trump says the word "Moon"
Mentions New York
Says “lie” or variant (liar, lying, etc)
S&P500 trades above US$6410 at end of the press conference
Says the word “magic”
Trump says the word “Israel”
Manifold HATES what is said (poll after market)
Trump speaks and answers questions for more than 30 minutes
Says “Texas”
Names any specific drug - prescription or illegal
Says “strange”
Says the word “NASA”
Trump mentions SpaceX
Says “water”
BTC trades above USDT112k before the end of the press conference
Trump mentions India
15 or more people speak (including audience and reporters)
Trump says the word "Putin"
Trump mispronounces a word
Says “announcement”
References any religion (e.g. Muslim, Islam, Christian)
Trump says the word “dictator”
Trump says the word “nasty”
Announces a new tariff or changes a tariff
Trump mentions the number of migrants deported since inaguration.
Trump uses a nickname for anyone
Expresses an emotion, along lines of "I feel happy", "It made me sad", "Because I was angry"
S&P500 trades under US$6350 before the end of the press conference
Mentions Rudy Giuliani
Says the word “hand”
Trump references White House renovations
Mentions current protests
Mentions any news outlet by name
Specifically names a past war (Vietnam, WWII, etc)
Conference is about diplomatic relations/other countries (will ask in comments if edge case)
Addresses budget or shutdown
Any reason for the delay will be given before end of the press conference
BTC trades below USDT106k before the end of the press conference
Trump laughs
Says “Massie” or refers to him
Says “doctor”
Mentions Elon Musk
Trump audibly laughs
Says "AI" or something directly related to it "GPT-5", etc.
mentions golf
Mentions EU or any member country
Anyone says "Gaza"
Most traded answer to this market has at least 50 traders
Says the word “adversary” or “adversaries”
Protest occurs after the conference based on what is said.
promotes his or his family's private ventures (eg speaks positively of trump coin or his golf courses)
Anyone says a curse word
Trump mentions Gavin Newsom
Addresses school shooting
Trump coughs, sneezes, or blows his nose
Mentions Israel/something related to Middle East Crisis
Mentions Chicago
Deploys National Guard anywhere
Says the word “NATO”
Mentions 2028 election
Manifold LOVES what it says (poll after market)
Trump says at least two words in a row in a non-English language
Trump mentions a major tech CEO by name
Trump mentions Artificial Intelligence / AI
Rubio speaks at all
Mentions Kamala Harris or Hillary Clinton
Trump appears visibly unhealthier than usual (according to market creator's judgement)
Trump will mention LGBTQ.
DoD renaming announced
Barron Trump appears on screen
Trump goes on his phone during the conference
Will donald trump make a 9/11 joke (Not mentions, has to be joke)
Trump quotes the Federalist Papers (three or more words in a row)
Mentions OpenAI
Trump mentions anything about extraterrestrials (lifeforms not originating from Earth; Space aliens)
Trump quotes from Horace
Trump mentions the possibility of him running in 2028
Delay due to Trump's health's reasons
Melania appears on screen
Trump speaks and answers questions for more than an hour
This stays the #1 market on manifold until Trump dies
Trump quotes Shakespeare
Trump quotes from Horace in the original
Trump mentions Hard Rock
Declares Martial Law
Tips the podium over (or falls out of a chair)
Trump says the word "Autism"
Theo Von appears on stream
Trump does a Nazi salute
Trump sings
Charles III is mentioned
A Nintendo Switch 2 is visible on stream at any point
Has a stroke
Resigns
Says "Manifold Markets"
Trump will admit he was on the Epstein list.
Trump will mention this market
Trump dies during the conference
Addresses Epstein in any way
Nucelear war begins between the start-->end
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Assisination attempt takes place against Trump
Anyone says "Manifold Markets"
Trump says "rationalussy"
Sam Altman appears on stream
Trump says "Deltarune"
Anyone mentions Polymarket
Trump plays the guitar live
Announces his OF account.
Trump gets hospitalized
Trump pulls out a cane and top hat and starts dancing
Trump diagnosed with testicular cancer
Trump cries
Trump says "Shadow the Hedgehog"
Trump mentions Silksong
Trump sings the entirety of Don't Forget from Deltarune
Trump says the word “Palestine”
Doctor on standby
spends most of the press conference seated
Trump is not at the White House
JD Vance is the main speaker
bruise visible on trump's hand
Turns out he died today, that's why the conference hasn't started
The dude walking on the beach in the shot speaks
Trump is obviously being Weekend at Bernies'ed around
Trump is in Walter Reed Medical Center
Starts at 3PMEST or later
The rumors are true... (something happened to Trump)
Trump appears on stream by 2:45 p.m. ET
Trump appears on stream by 2:40 p.m. ET
Stream cancelled due to Trump being dead
That dude standing out in the water in this beach video visibly drowns
That dude standing out in the water in the beach video is Trump
Cancelled (not due to health reasons)
Starts at 3:30PM or later
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OptionProbability
Magic: The Gathering
Cult of the Lamb
Death's Door
Shift Happens
Baba is You
Understand
The Witness
Hollow Knight
It Takes Two
Unravel Two
Portal 2
Braid
Portal
Superliminal
The Talos Principle
The Talos Principle 2
Antichamber
Perspective
Portal Reloaded
Portal Stories: Mel
Thinking with Time Machine
Cell Machine
Bokura
Hades
Hades 2
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes
Superhot
Slay the Princess
Mind over Magnet
Escape Academy
Pico Park 2
The Room
Pico Park
Wargroove
Patrick's Parabox
Q.U.B.E. 2
Q.U.B.E.
scarlet hollow
Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A
The Stanley Parable
Viewfinder
Stardew Valley
Mini Motorways
Children of Morta
Detroit: Become Human
Splendor (tabletop game)
Terraria
We Were Here Too
Don't Starve
Castle Crashers
Timberborn
Subnauticta
Goragoa
Tokimeki Memorial
Spiritfarer
Beyond: Two Souls
Chants of Sennaar
Patch Quest
PEAK
Minecraft
We Were Here
Wild Woods
Manifold Garden
We Were Here Forever
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
Baldur's Gate 3
Outer Wilds
Clandestine
Nobody Saves the World
Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime
Glider (1988)
Split Fiction
Rayman Legends
LittleBigPlanet 3
Trine 2
Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light
Magicka
Bean and nothingness
Yume Nikki
Space Station 13
999
Nomifactory
Monifactory
Rebirth of the Night
Induction
Akane
Zero Time Dilemma
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Morrowind
going under: internships are heck
blue prince
Animal Well
English Country Tune
English Country Tune
What Remains of Edith Finch
Satisfactory
Silksong
Moonlighter
Human: Fall Flat
Myst
We Were Here Together
Hyperrogue
Void Stranger
Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Unstable Unicorns 🦄
Mario Party
Exploding kittens
The House of DaVinci
Tunic
Moving Out
Moving Out
Fez
A Couple Of Cubes
Root (tabletop or digital version)
Rainworld
Deadly Rooms of Death
CrossCode
Islands of Insight
SteamWorld Dig
Snakebird
Monopoly
Chess
Slay the Spire
Among Us
Stephen's Sausage Roll
Amazing Chicken Adventures
Wingspan
Can of Wormholes
Disco Elysium
Overcooked
Return of the Obra Dinn
Inscryption
Slice and Dice
Teardown
Astroneer
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OptionProbability
Other
BDSM
Power couple
"Fun while it lasted"
Me + *Her*
Keynesian beauty contest
Spinning rapidly in opposite directions
Polyamory
Monogamy
Relationship Futarchy
Human + Robot
Enemies to Lovers
Co-conspirators
Philosophically incompatible
Conjoined twinks
Horizontal gene transfer
borgie
Relationship Anarchy
Platonic
Wild Lovers
Friends with Benefits
Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence
Forever alone
Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy
Hobbesian
Hive / Swarm / Superorganism
Love triangle
Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks
Universal love
merged consciousness
Rationalussy
Vespertine
liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets
Matriarchy
Labor Union
Socratic
One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)
Just being one helluva slut
Beard
Paradixical
Friends with Detriments
NP-complete
The Apprentice
Hell's Kitchen
Stockholm Syndrome
London Syndrome
Financial Domination
The Price is Right
Crows
Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)
Budget horse
assortative
Hubris quest
Fiends with benefits
Envenomation
Polygamy
Polyandry
Ethical Non-Monogamy
Unethical Non-Monogamy
Celibacy
Aromanticism
Solo poly
Open relationship
Polyfidelity
What's a "relationship"?
Reflexive
Symmetric
Transitive
Metamour
Socially enforced monogamy
Unreciprocated love
Asexual romance
Abusive
"This is my emotional support Ex"
FWB
Enemies-To-Lovers
Codependent
Transference
Monogamish
Voyeuristic
Romantic Mutual Suicide
Mutuals
Animalistic
Human + AI
parasocial
Polycule
Cuckold
Throuple
Boyce-Codd normal form
Aristotelian
Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried
I like big butts and I cannot lie
I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon
"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"
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OptionProbability
They go bankrupt
Other
Outcompeted in the online marketplace
Manifold is eternal
Not with a bang but a whimper
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance
Shut down by the U.S. federal government
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death
Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable
Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama
A lover's quarrel
Erotic auto-asphyxiation
destroyed by great hwan empire
Heat death
with thunderous applause
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OptionProbability
Life's a bitch and then you die
"There is water at the bottom of the ocean" - Talking Heads
"It's not a cry that you hear at night, it's not somebody who has seen the light, it's a cold and it's a broken hallelujah"
"Take me where the future is lying, St Elmo's Fire!"
"I believe your parents did the best job they knew how to do"
"If I could fall into the sky, do you think time would pass us by?"
"Like Hephaestion who died, Alexander's lover."
"The secret of any victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious"
The lyrics of "Sweet Dreams" by Tori Amos taken as a whole
"These bastards stole their power from the victims of the Us v. Them years, wrecking all things virtuous and true"
"Don't go making phony calls, only dial the seven-digit numbers you used to."
"Heaven is a place where nothing ever happens" -Heaven, Talking Heads
"There's things to be done all over the world but let's rebuild America first"
"Don't you have somewhere to be at 7:30?" -When You Die, MGMT
"Second chances never matter, people never change"
"Capitalism has made it this way; old fashioned fascism will take it away"
"And I dare not preach what I don't understand"
"Gotta do what you can just to keep your love alive Tryin' not to confuse it with what you do to survive In '69 I was twenty-one and I called the road my own I don't know when that road turned onto the road I'm on"
The lyrics of "Sweet Dreams" by Eurythmics taken as a whole
"Jesus is just alright with me"
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
1078
943
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1154
931
OptionProbability
Lead author of the series is a man
There are threats in the universe that can destroy the planet/realm the main character lives on that they have to fight against
Has at least 6 animated episodes of an accompanying anime or OVA
published in Shonen Jump
Some sort of magic is used
Cute animal sidekick to the main character or their allies
Guns exist in the universe
'power of friendship' trope
'enemies to Lovers' trope
One of the top 2 main characters has green hair
'Time Travel' trope or a part of the key storyline
Set in the future
Psychic powers are used by an enemy or antihero character
Cloning technology exists in the universe
Has had a related skin in fortnite
'bad ass transfer student' trope
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
90
56
