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Prediction markets for Lumin

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

3619769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11027

9758

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.21%chance

879123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

1199

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Apr 10, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.42%chance

356001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4400

686

Is Lumina probiotics a scam?

Nov 20, 11:49 AMNov 28, 4:59 AM

71.09%chance

394357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1525

288

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Apr 14, 8:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.82%chance

303981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2893

596

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28.91%chance

363686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

565

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

652

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.89%chance

251409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

775

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.44%chance

8690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1582

632

My Lumina treatment will cause:

Sep 9, 4:33 PMDec 31, 5:13 PM

6244

OptionProbability

nothing notable

fewer cavities

worse breath

blindness

75

25

13

2

Will Lumina ship their oral probiotic to an EU retail customer before 2028?

Sep 6, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3128

OptionProbability

Later or never

Before January 2027

Before July 2027

Before January 2028

Before July 2026

76

50

50

50

21

Will I get Lumina before 2030?

Sep 25, 11:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

50.73%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

986

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