OptionProbability
GPT-5.3 (doesn't include GPT-5.3 Codex)
GPT-5.4 (includes GPT-5.4 Codex or other non-Pro variants)
Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview
GPT-5.4 Pro
Grok 4.20 (out of beta)
Minimax M2.6/M2.7
Gemma 4
Haiku 4.6
Kimi K3
DeepSeek V4-Lite
Gemini 3.1 Flash Preview
GLM-5-Code
Gemini 3.1 Pro GA
Deepseek V4 (Full)
Opus 4.7
Gemini 3.1 Flash GA
Sonnet 5
Sonnet 4.7
Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite GA
Grok 5
Minimax M3
DeepSeek V3.3 or V3.5
GPT-5.3-Thinking
GPT-5.3-Pro
Meta Avocado (or any Meta model)
100
49
38
35
30
22
21
14
11
9
6
5
4
3
2
1
NO
YES
4576
2499
Before December 2026
Before November 2026
Before October 2026
Before September 2026
Before July 2026
Before August 2026
Before June 2026
Before May 2026
Before April 2026
Before March 2026
87
83
76
72
63
61
34
31
0
2027
2028
Jul-Sep 2026
Oct-Dec 2026
Mar-Jun 2026
2029
2030
2031-2035
2036+
16
8