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Prediction markets for Machine Learning

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

Will AI outperform the best human expert on machine learning R&D?

Mar 6, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

234323

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

92

89

84

6

Will any prominent Notkilleveryoneists switch sides to e/acc after learning more about machine learning R&D?

Apr 9, 9:15 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

1.18%chance

71167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1278

64

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Autonomy level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:52 PMJul 1, 3:50 PM

4570

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

80

72

66

60

55

55

45

37

24

11

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Uplift level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:55 PMJul 1, 3:55 PM

2430

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

66

63

59

55

50

45

41

31

20

14

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.98%chance

14221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

282

175

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

45

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

36

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