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Prediction markets for Machine Learning

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.98%chance

659864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

912

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Will AI outperform the best human expert on machine learning R&D?

Mar 6, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

234353

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

92

89

84

7

Will any prominent Notkilleveryoneists switch sides to e/acc after learning more about machine learning R&D?

Apr 9, 9:15 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

1.18%chance

71167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1278

64

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

73.28%chance

13540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

100

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Uplift level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:55 PMJul 1, 3:55 PM

2430

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

66

63

59

55

50

45

41

31

20

14

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.98%chance

14221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

282

175

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

45

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.14%chance

265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

41

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2035 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.16%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

70

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