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Macro News

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.73%chance

9531769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4074

648

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?

Feb 7, 10:27 AMFeb 7, 7:59 PM

10931640

OptionProbability

Jordan Bardella

Édouard Philippe

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Marine Le Pen

Other

Gabriel Attal

Dominique de Villepin

Bruno Retailleau

Raphaël Glucksmann

François Hollande

François Ruffin

Olivier Faure

Bernard Cazeneuve

Christine Lagarde

Sarah Knafo

Éric Zemmour

Sébastien Lecornu

Juan Branco

Emmanuel Macron

François Fillon

Laurent Wauquiez

Bruno Le Maire

François Bayrou

Gérald Darmanin

Nathalie Arthaud

Someone not on this list

Élisabeth Borne

Gérard Larcher

Rachida Dati

Marine Tondelier

33

21

9

7

7

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

615283

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Other

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Nanotech

Nuclear war

Other biotech/bioweapon

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Drones or other macro robots

Chemical weapons

23

13

12

11

8

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.01%chance

334958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3199

836

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.38%chance

243964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

953

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

63.52%chance

282920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

907

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?

Nov 23, 10:23 AMNov 23, 6:59 PM

221766

OptionProbability

Human war (any type)

Climate crisis

Societal collapse

AI (both misaligned and misused)

Coronal mass ejection

Nuclear war

Global pandemic

Self-replicating machines (macro, micro, nano, or otherwise)

Supervolcano eruption

Impact event

Close supernova

Mass suicides

Kessler syndrome

War with extraterrestrials

Outside object disturbing the solar system gravitationally

67

57

48

45

44

43

41

32

30

15

11

10

9

9

7

sophomore year prop bets [add answers]

Jul 29, 11:01 PMAug 31, 10:58 PM

101062

OptionProbability

get a 5 on ap calculus bc

get a 5 on apcsa

get a 5 on ap phys 2

get a 5 on ap lang

get an A in honors chem

get a 5 on apush

get a 5 on ap econ micro

get a 5 on ap econ macro

get an A in mandarin

make USAPHO

make USAMO

make USACO camp

82

78

74

70

69

64

63

63

59

55

45

16

Will the Sperm Whale (Physeter macrocephalus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 28, 8:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.04%chance

7316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

775

411

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11292

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

63

59

44

5

Will a breakthrough in macro-scale energy production occur by EOY 2030 ?

Jun 9, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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