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Prediction markets for MAGA

If Trump unambiguously causes a recession during his term, will it affect his popularity among the MAGAs?

Apr 3, 12:51 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

39.28%chance

302178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will Donald Trump and/or MAGA be satirized in GTA VI?

Apr 9, 11:31 PMNov 19, 7:59 AM

83.62%chance

471546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

900

MAGA stock

Apr 7, 12:24 AMApr 7, 3:59 AM

20787

OptionProbability

NO

YES

365

331

Will "MAGA speakers at NatCon were mostly against AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 9, 2:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.01%chance

3548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

933

Will trump or elon unveil a Maga operating system or web browser by the end of 2027?

Mar 2, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.47%chance

11425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

416

24

If maga tries to cancel me, will my employer defend me?

Sep 15, 1:44 AMJan 9, 2:40 AM

36%chance

7123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?

Mar 13, 10:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

24.75%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

Will MAGA dissolve before 2030?

Nov 5, 2:04 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

67.77%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will America have post-MAGA GOP before 2034?

Nov 5, 2:05 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

67.77%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

By 2030, will Tumbles be satisfied with the institutional response to any MAGA officials?

Feb 12, 7:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.95%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

Will the Republican party have post-MAGA before 2030?

Nov 5, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will MAGA and MAGA-like culture be turned into the primary “villains” in mainstream storytelling by 2030?

Oct 31, 4:02 AM

110

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