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Prediction markets for Magic AI

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.92%chance

6238649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1870

550

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

6610074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

299

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

599478

OptionProbability

2030

2035+

2029

2028

2031

2032

2027

2033

2034

2026

2025

18

17

15

14

8

8

7

7

3

2

1

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.82%chance

426398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

901

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

460

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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