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Prediction markets for Magic AI

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.26%chance

6843710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4658

279

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

24

21

13

11

10

8

5

3

3

2

0

Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]

Sep 11, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.64%chance

7713521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2238

447

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.01%chance

7513000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

588

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

93.17%chance

459025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2289

807

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

480

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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