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Prediction markets for Magne

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Jun 6, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.55%chance

557969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

802

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.24%chance

405630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4682

474

Will Magnus Carlsen, the world chess #1 since 2011, be ranked #1 in 2029.1.1?

Aug 7, 8:30 AMDec 1, 2:59 PM

24.43%chance

423036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

828

Will Magnus Carlsen compete in a Candidate's tournament before 2029?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

15.45%chance

191063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

811

Will a human be magnetically levitated before 2035?

Dec 17, 9:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.72%chance

8534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

881

Magnus Carlsen runs for public office before 2045

Apr 13, 2:41 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

19.45%chance

17438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

954

By 2040, the dominant intelligence will be as different from modern humans as modern humans are from cro magnons

Feb 26, 1:39 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

40.61%chance

16422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

873

Will the first commercial fusion reactor use inertial confinement fusion? (And not magnetic confinement fusion)

Dec 16, 11:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.42%chance

20396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

983

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Magnificent 7 below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?

Jan 13, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.68%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

955

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

Mar 21, 10:47 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

34.15%chance

12130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

977

Magnus firstborn is a boy

Oct 23, 5:33 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.79%chance

26

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

996

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