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Prediction markets for Magnolia

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.51%chance

291797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

985

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

17.18%chance

24865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1905

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.78%chance

11457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

247

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Mar 7, 1:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.07%chance

12335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

914

Will LOY-001 establish safety?

Dec 12, 5:19 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

80.73%chance

10182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

114

Will a >100 karma LW post claim "How to Catch a Liar" suffers from similar problems to CCS?

Jan 15, 6:00 PMJan 23, 7:59 AM

31%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

111

What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI announces GPT-5?

Jan 1, 12:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.4%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.34%chance

6114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

123

What percentage of 2025 will be left when OpenAI releases GPT-5?

Jan 1, 12:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.38%chance

580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

81

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