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Prediction markets for Mainnet

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Nov 6, 7:14 PMFeb 5, 11:59 PM

47.32%chance

15739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

879

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Dec 12, 1:56 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

5667

OptionProbability

By 2026-12-31

By 2025-12-31

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2024-10-01

By 2025-01-01

By 2025-04-01

By 2025-07-01

5

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

"The Purge": When will Ethereum implement state expiry?

Dec 12, 2:11 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1478

OptionProbability

By 2026-01-01

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2024-10-01

By 2025-01-01

2

0

0

0

0

Will Ethereum hard fork Fusaka include EOF?

Apr 26, 11:45 AMDec 31, 11:44 AM

5.47%chance

5363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

416

24

"The Splurge": When will EVM Object Format be added to mainnet?

Dec 31, 11:04 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

2282

OptionProbability

By 2026-01-01

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2025-01-01

50

0

0

0

Official Labubu NFT collection on Ethereum by 2025?

Aug 2, 1:38 PMAug 5, 3:59 AM

43.75%chance

7246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

882

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

63

46

29

Will Ethereum replace the EVM with RISC-V?

Apr 21, 3:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

315

OptionProbability

by 2029-01-01?

by 2030-01-01?

by 2028-01-01?

by 2027-01-01?

48

48

46

33

Will Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?

Dec 16, 3:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

54.75%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

55

45

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