Mainnet News

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Apr 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.36%chance

4763323

OptionVotes

YES

19190

5211

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3529898

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Benchmarkets

Non-AI prediction markets

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

919848

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

ARC-AGI

FrontierMath

SWE-Bench

MNX Launch Date?

Jul 12, 12:27 AMAug 11, 12:23 AM

201904

OptionProbability

Before 11/1/2026

Before 12/1/2026

Before 8/1/2026

Before 9/1/2026

Before 10/1/2026

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Nov 6, 7:14 PMFeb 5, 11:59 PM

18.03%chance

211866

OptionVotes

YES

2140

417

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Dec 12, 1:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5667

OptionProbability

By 2027-12-31

By 2028-12-31

By 2026-12-31

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2024-10-01

By 2025-01-01

By 2025-04-01

By 2025-07-01

By 2025-12-31

Will Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?

Dec 16, 3:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

75.58%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

Will Sonic $S (former Fantom $FTM) reach $0.50 by the end of 2026?

Jan 7, 10:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.49%chance

3143

OptionVotes

YES

339

240

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

How many Ethereum hard forks in 2026?

Nov 14, 4:40 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Above 2

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

Will Ethereum replace the EVM with RISC-V?

Apr 21, 3:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

315

OptionProbability

by 2029-01-01?

by 2030-01-01?

by 2028-01-01?

by 2027-01-01?

Mainnet News

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

MNX Launch Date?

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Will Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?

Will Sonic $S (former Fantom $FTM) reach $0.50 by the end of 2026?

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

How many Ethereum hard forks in 2026?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Will Ethereum replace the EVM with RISC-V?

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