Mainnet News

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Apr 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.97%chance

4561965

OptionVotes

YES

20668

4838

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3428156

OptionProbability

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Equity or index perps

Non-AI prediction markets

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Benchmarkets

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

817347

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

ARC-AGI

FrontierMath

SWE-Bench

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Nov 6, 7:14 PMFeb 5, 11:59 PM

30.82%chance

181170

OptionVotes

YES

1536

606

MNX Launch Date?

Jul 12, 12:27 AMAug 11, 12:23 AM

171044

OptionProbability

Before 11/1/2026

Before 12/1/2026

Before 10/1/2026

Before 8/1/2026

Before 9/1/2026

Will MNX have $1m in volume before October 2026?

Aug 30, 12:34 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20%chance

13759

OptionVotes

YES

200

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Dec 12, 1:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5667

OptionProbability

By 2027-12-31

By 2028-12-31

By 2026-12-31

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2024-10-01

By 2025-01-01

By 2025-04-01

By 2025-07-01

By 2025-12-31

Will Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?

Dec 16, 3:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

75.58%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

How many Ethereum hard forks in 2026?

Nov 14, 4:40 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Above 2

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

Will Ethereum replace the EVM with RISC-V?

Apr 21, 3:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

315

OptionProbability

by 2029-01-01?

by 2030-01-01?

by 2028-01-01?

by 2027-01-01?

Mainnet News

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

MNX Launch Date?

Will MNX have $1m in volume before October 2026?

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Will Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

How many Ethereum hard forks in 2026?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Will Ethereum replace the EVM with RISC-V?

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