Mainnet News

When will MNX mainnet launch?

Feb 18, 9:37 PMDec 31, 9:35 PM

5381931

OptionProbability

July 2026

August 2026

Other

September 2026

June 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Apr 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.49%chance

3141865

OptionVotes

YES

23359

4281

Will MNX have $1m in volume before September 2026?

Apr 9, 5:45 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

57.99%chance

2726828

OptionVotes

YES

11748

8512

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2017276

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Non-AI prediction markets

Benchmarkets

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69599

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

ARC-AGI

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

FrontierMath

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Nov 6, 7:14 PMFeb 5, 11:59 PM

39.41%chance

17920

OptionVotes

YES

1286

740

Will MNX let people trade Anthropic futures before Anthropic goes public?

Jun 2, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.68%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

1242

805

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

How many Ethereum hard forks in 2026?

Nov 14, 4:40 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Above 2

Will Sonic $S (former Fantom $FTM) reach $0.50 by the end of 2026?

Jan 7, 10:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.71%chance

268

OptionVotes

YES

354

264

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

Will Ethereum replace the EVM with RISC-V?

Apr 21, 3:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

315

OptionProbability

by 2029-01-01?

by 2030-01-01?

by 2028-01-01?

by 2027-01-01?

Mainnet News

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

When will MNX mainnet launch?

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Will MNX have $1m in volume before September 2026?

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Will MNX let people trade Anthropic futures before Anthropic goes public?

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

How many Ethereum hard forks in 2026?

Will Sonic $S (former Fantom $FTM) reach $0.50 by the end of 2026?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Will Ethereum replace the EVM with RISC-V?

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