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Prediction markets for Majors

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

210106266

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

24

18

14

13

6

5

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.43%chance

12322815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3710

1445

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.47%chance

9021683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14005

8548

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

14.19%chance

4221426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24591

4071

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.61%chance

3519502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14866

7407

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.01%chance

3519392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24779

4036

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.57%chance

15118150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10008

9979

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

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