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Prediction markets for Malicious

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

564

Will Finland recognize a state of Palestine before 2030

May 22, 4:40 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

32.86%chance

10217166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

705

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?

Jun 22, 4:40 AMJan 1, 10:43 PM

22.28%chance

304041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

939

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2542

393

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.98%chance

102928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.73%chance

402183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

889

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?

Aug 5, 6:50 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

36.78%chance

12846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.8%chance

14722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

874

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

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