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Prediction markets for Manager Live

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will I Experience a Material Change in Living Situation Due to the Executive Order on the Presidio Trust by End of 2025?

Feb 20, 3:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.53%chance

83765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4589

218

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the Netherlands suffer a catastrophic flooding event before 31st December 2030?

Jan 9, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.92%chance

372161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

738

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

Sep 13, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.01%chance

211912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2223

753

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1053

Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026

Oct 1, 6:10 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

23.61%chance

111128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

556

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.47%chance

391109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2089

[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Oct 7, 1:24 PMJan 1, 11:00 PM

24.03%chance

6113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

68

Will David Sinclair live to be 90 years old?

Nov 7, 9:21 PMJun 26, 9:59 PM

64.51%chance

681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

228

159

Facebook's default group avatar configuration becomes more representative, by mid 2026

Feb 18, 8:46 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.09%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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