OptionProbability
Elon Musk
David Reich
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Ajeya Cotra
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Nicholas Carlini
Dean Spears
Dean Ball
Alec Radford
Jack Clark
Gary Marcus
Joscha Bach
Holden Karnofsky
Yann LeCun
Sundar Pichai
Satya Nadella
Sarah Paine
Demis Hassabis
Amanda Askell
Tyler Cowen
Daniel Kokotajlo
Sam Altman
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ilya Sutskever
Ian Morris
Jeff Bezos
Michael Dell
Scott Alexander
Joe Henrich
Nick Bostrom
roon
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Paul J Werbos
Nate Soares
Mark Zuckerberg
Matt Levine
Janus @repligate
Zvi Mowshowitz
François Chollet
Michael Levin
Helen Toner
Joe Carlsmith
Tamay Besiroglu
Mira Murati
Doris Taylor
Carl Shulman
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Mustafa Suleyman
Tanner Greer
Dan Hendrycks
Robert Caro
Andrej Karpathy
George Hotz
Barack Obama
Bill Gates
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
Bill Clinton
100
99
41
39
38
33
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
20
19
18
16
15
14
13
12
10
9
8
5
4
2032
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
87
86
84
83
79
40