OptionProbability
Sarah Paine
Dean Ball
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Demis Hassabis
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Dean Spears
Yann LeCun
Tyler Cowen
Tamay Besiroglu
Satya Nadella
Holden Karnofsky
Alec Radford
Gary Marcus
Amanda Askell
Elon Musk
François Chollet
Joscha Bach
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Jensen Huang
Michael Dell
Mira Murati
Joe Carlsmith
Ian Morris
Sam Altman
Bill Gates
roon
Paul J Werbos
Zvi Mowshowitz
Matt Levine
George Hotz
Helen Toner
Ajeya Cotra
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Mustafa Suleyman
Doris Taylor
Jeff Bezos
Michael Levin
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom
Carl Shulman
Ilya Sutskever
David Reich
Janus @repligate
Tanner Greer
Mark Zuckerberg
Dan Hendrycks
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Nate Soares
Joe Henrich
Andrej Karpathy
Scott Alexander
Barack Obama
Robert Caro
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Bill Clinton
61
50
46
45
42
39
37
36
35
34
31
28
27
26
25
24
22
20
19
18
17
16
15
12
11
10
9
8
2032
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
84
78
70
66