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Prediction markets for Maps

How many seats will this election map be wrong on?

Jun 23, 4:57 AMDec 1, 3:57 AM

101637

OptionProbability

1

2

3

5

6

4

11 or more

7

8

9

0

10

26

24

9

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

Will google maps say Gulf of America at the end of February 2029?

Feb 11, 12:23 AMMar 1, 4:59 AM

84.68%chance

20734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

43

Will humans have a complete map of the human brain by EOY 2029?

Aug 20, 2:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18%chance

18423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

87

Gulf of America is renamed again by mid 2035 (in Google maps)

Feb 14, 9:04 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

79.28%chance

14394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

51

Will the 2040 electoral map differ from 2020 more than 2020 differed from 2000?

Dec 13, 5:37 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

70.12%chance

10158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

106

Will Google maps stop following China's law which requires misaligning the satellite layer? By 2039

Mar 5, 1:57 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

24%chance

6134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

334

130

When will Microsoft Copilot come up with a plausible looking world language map?

Feb 26, 8:17 PMDec 31, 8:15 PM

8128

OptionProbability

after 2036

2027

2028-9

2030-2032

2033-2036

2026

Other

31

13

13

13

13

10

8

Citizens Redistricting Commission resumes congressional district maps in 2031?

Nov 19, 6:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will there be a Grand Theft Auto or Midtown Madness clone based on the real world in Google Maps by 2028?

Oct 4, 2:35 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

56.57%chance

745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

146

Will it be possible to play a simcopter or streets of SimCity or GTA based on cities skylines 2 maps by 2029?

Mar 19, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

82

[Metaculus] Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

Nov 7, 2:29 PMJun 2, 7:00 AM

57.75%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Will Jose Luis Ricon get a QEEG brain mapping FOR SCIENCE by EOY2026

Oct 27, 10:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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