Margin News

NO

YES gets 51.000% or more?

YES gets 52.000% or more?

YES gets 53.500% or more?

YES gets 55.000% or more?

YES gets 57.500% or more?

YES gets 60.000% or more?

NO gets 51.000% or more?

YES gets 62.500% or more?

NO gets 52.000% or more?

6% to 8%

4% to 6%

8% to 10%

2% to 4%

0% to 2%

10% to 12%

12% to 14%

Above 14%

-2% to 0%

Platner 5.00-9.9999%

Platner 0-4.99999%

Platner 10-19.9999%

Mills 0-4.99999%

Mills 5-9.99999%

Platner 20%+

[No AI voting advice polling available]

> 3x

2x - 3x

1x - 2x

Dem +20 to Dem +30

Dem +10 to Dem +20

Dem +0 to Dem+10

Dem+30 to Dem +40

Republican win

180 or fewer (0-180)

160 or fewer (0-160)

140 or fewer (0-140)

120 or fewer (0-120)

100 or fewer (0-100)

80 or fewer (0-80)

60 or fewer (0-60)

40 or fewer (0-40)

20 or fewer (0-20)

YES

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

Datafolha

Ipec

Quaest

Atlas Intel

Ipespe

Paraná Pesquisas

Wet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // D wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

YES