Margin News

NO

YES

Republican by more than ten points

Republican by five to ten points

Republican by under five points

Democrat by under five points

Democrat by five to ten points

Democrat by more than ten points

YES

Above $1,000,000

Above $800,000

Above $900,000

Above $500,000

Above $600,000

Above $700,000

Above $400,000

Above $300,000

Above $100,000

Above $200,000

YES

Dem +20 to Dem +30

Dem +10 to Dem +20

Dem +0 to Dem+10

Dem+30 to Dem +40

Republican win

YES

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≥45% & D +2.5 or more (Trump good, Republicans bad)

YES

NO

YES