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Marginal Risk News
Prediction markets for Marginal Risk
Prediction markets for Marginal Risk
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
24.96%
chance
12
3209
Option
Votes
YES
NO
6132
3376
Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?
Mar 11, 5:20 PM
Jan 1, 12:00 AM
16.63%
chance
5
1055
Option
Votes
YES
NO
93
89
Will Polymarket or Kalshi offer ‘index contracts’ (contracts with continuous payoffs) in 2025?
Feb 16, 6:33 AM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
22.54%
chance
6
854
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1854
540
Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:08 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
30.52%
chance
8
143
Option
Votes
YES
NO
217
171
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