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Prediction markets for Market

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

56.56%chance

440954328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12894

6395

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.82%chance

294622996

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3029

2500

EIA projection for US BEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 6:16 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

5112089

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.29%chance

27106395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138794

35198

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.7%chance

21477630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4631

2534

EIA projection for U.S. HEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:10 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

261750

OptionProbability

10 - 11.79 %

11.8 - 13.74 %

8 - 9.99 %

13.75 - 16 %

5 - 7.99 %

Other

29

29

13

13

8

7

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

4643652

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

52

27

10

7

2

1

1

1

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32.94%chance

13228744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10570

8634

Will this market get Calaveras AI a hire by EOY 2025?

Aug 12, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.59%chance

293914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13454

7433

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10462

9632

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

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