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Market Outperform News

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

30%chance

8612963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1722

1174

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33%chance

134578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?

Jan 11, 7:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.28%chance

141633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.82%chance

221268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

945

Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

80.24%chance

91095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2015

496

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

29.93%chance

22556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

928

Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9395

OptionProbability

Semiconductor (XSD)

Software & Services (XSW)

Insurance (KIE)

Aerospace & Defense (XAR)

Biotech (XBI)

Health Care Services (XHS)

Banks (KBE)

Metals & Mining (XME)

Capital Markets (KCE)

Health Care Equipment (XHE)

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP)

Pharmaceuticals (XPH)

Regional Banking (KRE)

Telecom (XTL)

Transportation (XTN)

Retail (XRT)

Homebuilders (XHB)

70

63

59

58

57

55

54

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

46

45

Will Canada's stock market outperform the US's during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 24, 4:41 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

51.71%chance

12314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)?

Feb 7, 4:54 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

78.94%chance

7239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

56

Will the S&P500 outperform the total world stock market over the next 50 years?

Apr 4, 12:04 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

68.95%chance

8135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

165

By what date will FTSE All-World ex-US Index (~VEU) have outperformed US Total Market (~VTI) for a period of 5+ years?

Nov 20, 6:36 PM

20

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