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Prediction markets for Market Outperform

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

12.07%chance

14668226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2833

1331

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1017501

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

26

13

5

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.45%chance

145328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2175

460

Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

142852

OptionProbability

Metals & Mining (XME)

Semiconductor (XSD)

Telecom (XTL)

Aerospace & Defense (XAR)

Biotech (XBI)

Pharmaceuticals (XPH)

Health Care Services (XHS)

Banks (KBE)

Capital Markets (KCE)

Homebuilders (XHB)

Insurance (KIE)

Retail (XRT)

Regional Banking (KRE)

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP)

Software & Services (XSW)

Health Care Equipment (XHE)

Transportation (XTN)

96

93

92

91

82

80

73

25

25

25

25

25

24

20

20

20

15

13

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.82%chance

221268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

945

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

Will Canada's stock market outperform the US's during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 24, 4:41 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

60.66%chance

14375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)?

Feb 7, 4:54 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

46.74%chance

7321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

72

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

4246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will the S&P500 outperform the total world stock market over the next 50 years?

Apr 4, 12:04 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

68.95%chance

8135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

165

By what date will FTSE All-World ex-US Index (~VEU) have outperformed US Total Market (~VTI) for a period of 5+ years?

Nov 20, 6:36 PM

20

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