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Prediction markets for Market Outperform

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

14.99%chance

14969486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2334

1409

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1017501

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

26

13

5

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

Nov 20, 2:07 AMMay 20, 12:50 AM

6.27%chance

103934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3866

259

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.82%chance

221268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

945

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will Canada's stock market outperform the US's during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 24, 4:41 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

64.08%chance

15415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Will the S&P500 outperform the total world stock market over the next 50 years?

Apr 4, 12:04 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

68.95%chance

8135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

165

Will Intel outperform Samsung if China invades Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 21, 6:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

By what date will FTSE All-World ex-US Index (~VEU) have outperformed US Total Market (~VTI) for a period of 5+ years?

Nov 20, 6:36 PM

20

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