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Prediction markets for Market Regulator

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:51 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

4.6%chance

5570529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45388

2168

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:55 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

3%chance

4352283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

56752

1748

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

5.25%chance

3442871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41806

2167

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

75.07%chance

156703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5637

2401

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

112283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6581

3799

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.62%chance

101749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3048

1488

Will the 2025 average carbon price of the regulated carbon market in Europe exceed €100/t CO2?

Nov 27, 9:25 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

33.98%chance

9370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

102

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?

Nov 25, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.27%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

43

[Objective/sentiment market hybrid] 2040 scientific consensus will be that hominins regularly used hand tools?

Jul 9, 2:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.91%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Do you regularly bet on real-money markets?

May 2, 12:45 PM

200

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