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Prediction markets for Market Research Reports

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1937355

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Dec 4, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2235068

OptionProbability

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

1.4-1.6

>=1.6

<0.8

35

22

19

11

8

5

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Jun 10, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.02%chance

10234570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13712

9873

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.27%chance

1517376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

546

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

58.35%chance

441723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

786

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Apr 7, 1:59 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

40%chance

9755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5735

4626

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4071

3711

How much money will the LEV Foundation spend in 2025?

Dec 10, 8:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.57%chance

6133

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1091

996

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.25%chance

585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

937

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