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Prediction markets for Market Structure

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

9.04%chance

18031036485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36292

6098

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok?

Jan 14, 12:45 AMAug 31, 11:00 PM

1%chance

244335013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145234

5127

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79%chance

288174177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3090

899

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.65%chance

8837404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12909

7762

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

64.27%chance

1422593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13224

7640

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

32.98%chance

5710753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11036

10936

Will I run a sub-45 min 10k by the end of this year?

Jan 16, 4:54 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

12.21%chance

136262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7301

556

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

28.8%chance

14953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3444

2686

Recommend market structures that incentivize betting on long term markets

Apr 12, 9:59 PM

00

What is the best way to structure a market to capture probabilities conditional on unlikely events?

Feb 8, 9:27 PM

60

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