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Market Surveillance News

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Prediction Markets

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

9

8 months ago

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

5

8 months ago

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

149972

OptionProbability

Anthropic does not cave: stays a leading lab

Anthropic does not cave: stops being a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stays a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stops being a leading lab

87

11

1

1

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

244278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

416

Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2026?

Jan 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.14%chance

201958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2280

439

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

101522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

121149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1639

610

Will the Percentage of the US Population (Age >= 13) that is Trans Increase in the Next Williams Center Report?

Feb 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.7%chance

14641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

769

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

8402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

44

Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?

Jan 24, 5:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.8%chance

13289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

Will "OpenAI’s surveillance language has many poten..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 4, 11:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.61%chance

3124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

791

Will official investigations or leaked evidence confirm that Yu Menglong's death was murder by June 30, 2026

Dec 14, 7:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.64%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

69

Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028

Aug 11, 11:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?

Jan 3, 2:17 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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