Market Surveillance News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Market Surveillance
OptionVotes
2000
500
Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?
Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.07%chance
101522
OptionVotes
1223
818
OptionVotes
1832
546
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.64%chance
10746
OptionVotes
1470
680
Will the Percentage of the US Population (Age >= 13) that is Trans Increase in the Next Williams Center Report?
Feb 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
77.7%chance
14641
OptionVotes
1034
769
OptionVotes
280
36
OptionProbability
20
18
11
10
10
9
7
7
7
Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
Jan 24, 5:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
79.8%chance
13289
OptionVotes
199
50
Will "OpenAI’s surveillance language has many poten..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 4, 11:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17.61%chance
3124
OptionVotes
1039
791
OptionVotes
220
45
Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC?
Dec 11, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.41%chance
490
OptionVotes
121
82
Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?
Jan 3, 2:17 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
49.01%chance
12
OptionVotes
102
98