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Top stories

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Prediction Markets

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Authors

9

10 months ago

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Market Surveillance

If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?

Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410172

OptionProbability

Anthropic does not cave: stays a leading lab

Anthropic does not cave: stops being a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stays a leading lab

Anthropic caves: stops being a leading lab

85

13

1

1

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.07%chance

275257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2989

335

Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2026?

Jan 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.51%chance

212012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2334

429

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.2%chance

101587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1328

753

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

Will the Percentage of the US Population (Age >= 13) that is Trans Increase in the Next Williams Center Report?

Feb 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.7%chance

14641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

769

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

44

Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?

Jan 24, 5:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.8%chance

13289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC?

Dec 11, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will official investigations or leaked evidence confirm that Yu Menglong's death was murder by June 30, 2026

Dec 14, 7:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

13.39%chance

3125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

65

Will "OpenAI’s surveillance language has many poten..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 4, 11:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.61%chance

3124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

791

In the which years will the CDC report more measles cases in the US than 2026?

Jun 1, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

587

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030

56

53

52

52

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