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Top stories

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Prediction Markets

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Authors

9

5 days ago

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

Authors

5

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Market Surveillance

Will measles become endemic in the U.S. due to the current Texas outbreak?

Mar 28, 8:28 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

10%chance

153270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2984

432

Will the U.S. slide into the tenets of fascism under Trump’s second term by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

482805

OptionProbability

Authoritarian Leadership

Forcible Suppression of Opposition

Extreme Nationalism and/or Race-Based Policies

Militarism and Political Violence

Regimentation of Society and Economy

Rejection of Pluralism and Democracy

89

83

81

80

58

23

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.54%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

586

Will the Percentage of the US Population (Age >= 13) that is Trans Increase in the Next Williams Center Report?

Feb 19, 1:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.7%chance

14641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

769

When will Instituto Butantã's Dengue vaccine be approved by Anvisa?

Jun 23, 12:48 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

3429

OptionProbability

2025.Q2

2025.Q3

2025.Q4

2026 or later

2024.Q3

2024.Q4

2025.Q1

43

27

15

12

1

1

1

Will any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?

Jan 24, 5:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.8%chance

13289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

What animal will we be to AI by 2045?

May 2, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12252

OptionProbability

Other

Cat

Chickens

Bugs

Watchdog

Labrats

Zoo animals

Monkey

Petdog

26

24

10

9

8

8

7

5

3

Will a Novel Disease Identified by 2025 Cause Over 100 Deaths by End of 2027?

Mar 24, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.37%chance

579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028

Aug 11, 11:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?

Jan 3, 2:17 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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