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Top stories

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Prediction Markets

CFTC Deploys Nasdaq Surveillance Platform to Police Expanding Crypto Markets

Authors

9

1 year ago

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

Bybit EU Deploys Nasdaq Market Surveillance to Meet MiCAR Rules

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Market Surveillance

Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2026?

Jan 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.06%chance

233266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3629

276

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

173004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1921

520

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

410

Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2027 than 2026?

Jul 29, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.76%chance

7736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

927

Will China become democratic before 2030?

Jan 3, 10:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

13420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

What animal will we be to AI by 2045?

May 2, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13292

OptionProbability

Other

Cat

Petdog

Monkey

Labrats

Watchdog

Chickens

Bugs

Zoo animals

20

18

11

10

10

9

7

7

7

Will Canada pass Bill C-22 in 2026?

May 20, 7:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.8%chance

5132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

47

Will "OpenAI’s surveillance language has many poten..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 4, 11:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.61%chance

3124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

791

Will Canada pass a Warrantless mass data collection law, as part of Bill C-22, in 2026?

May 23, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.54%chance

9106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will there be another covid-scale pandemic throughout the 2020s?

Nov 4, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

25.98%chance

348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

76

Will there be more than 20,000 cases of pertussis in the US in 2027?

Oct 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.02%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

275

Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?

Jan 3, 2:17 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.01%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

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