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Prediction markets for Market Talk

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14169

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

99138312

OptionProbability

Other

Jan - Jun 2026

Jul - Dec 2026

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

60

23

14

2

1

0

0

USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?

Feb 28, 6:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

13.2%chance

28395315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2564

390

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

26.99%chance

8737584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14134332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

4312501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17554

5697

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

23.98%chance

807018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

598

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

976

Will there be evidence of at least 5000 mixed Chinese-Africans born in Africa through 2030?

Sep 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.49%chance

17551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

919

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

94%chance

2417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5329

4976

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