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Prediction markets for Markets

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.71%chance

4711143855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11756

7379

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.22%chance

316655684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2707

2466

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.05%chance

70131971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35453

7520

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

16179283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

953

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5246184

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

52

29

7

6

4

1

1

1

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.69%chance

8616597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12850

7975

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.04%chance

224418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9992

9986

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

72461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4576

2499

Will the "Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2026" market ever reach 10% again?

Jan 20, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.4%chance

162359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2796

1484

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.59%chance

241557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

936

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

13402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

50.37%chance

17245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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