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Prediction markets for Markets

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.85%chance

4761148574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10385

8942

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

322658469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

2288

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

72137235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32209

7665

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

16179283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

953

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5247734

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

57

26

6

6

3

1

1

1

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

10633080

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12752

7602

Red vs. Blue button except prediction market

Apr 30, 8:26 PMMay 11, 8:23 PM

1426590

OptionProbability

Red

Blue

100

0

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1816461

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Non-AI prediction markets

Benchmarkets

41

30

12

9

8

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.1%chance

224428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10005

9976

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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