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Prediction markets for Marriage Allowance

Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?

Sep 11, 9:37 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

183204

OptionProbability

South Africa

Texas

Florida

Navajo Nation

Italy

Ukraine

Poland

Vietnam

Cambodia

95

94

94

31

19

18

17

8

5

Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized for at least non-Muslims in any Muslim-majority country before 2030?

Jul 1, 11:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.42%chance

392375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

868

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow for gay marriage in their temple before the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 11:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.75%chance

191736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

883

Will the Roman Catholic Church allow priests to perform same-sex marriages before 2075?

Sep 28, 3:48 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.14%chance

281211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

628

Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?

May 18, 2:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15955

OptionProbability

Florida

Texas

South Africa

Japan

Navajo Nation

Poland

Italy

Cambodia

Ukraine

Vietnam

89

87

87

67

66

62

41

33

29

27

Will human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029?

Jul 15, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.02%chance

17471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

538

142

First human-AI marriages recognized when?

Jul 24, 4:34 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9306

OptionProbability

2100+ or never

2036-2040

2031-2035

2029-2030

2025-2028

2041-2050

2051-2070

2071-2100

45

14

11

7

6

6

6

6

Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030?

Apr 4, 12:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.87%chance

16250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

885

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow for gay marriage in their temple before the end of 2050?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.49%chance

8185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

90

Will Saudi Arabia end male guardianship over adult women by 2030?

Jan 8, 9:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.39%chance

683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

181

124

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