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Prediction markets for Mars plans

Will I run a sub-45 min 10k by the end of this year?

Jan 16, 4:54 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

12.63%chance

136162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7201

570

Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]

Nov 19, 1:57 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

90.2%chance

185249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4897

736

Cybertruck drives on moon or other solar planetary body

Mar 28, 3:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.09%chance

375095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

919

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Oct 15, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.55%chance

483468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

797

Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?

Jan 6, 12:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.6%chance

813322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

1285

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

71.15%chance

633208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

1109

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

39.42%chance

21668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

929

🧑‍🚀 What will be true about the first person(s) to walk on a planet other than Mars and Earth? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 9, 1:06 AMJan 1, 5:45 PM

16466

OptionProbability

At least 1 Male

At least 1 has been in the army/air force / armed forces of their country

At least 1 Female

At least 1 American Citizen

at least 1 Chinese Citizen

At least 1 born in Europe

at least 1 Bald

At least 1: Aged 50 or older

83

79

73

71

38

37

37

33

Which country's flag will be the first planted on Mars by robot or human?

Jun 30, 5:07 PMJul 1, 5:07 PM

6426

OptionProbability

China

United states

EU

India

Germany

Other

Saudi Arabia

Russia

Japan

France

North Korea

25

16

8

8

8

8

7

6

6

5

2

Will a human land on any planetary body that is not the Earth, the Moon, or Mars before 2075?

Nov 11, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

72.68%chance

15397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

939

Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040?

Jan 30, 10:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.37%chance

14324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

985

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