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Prediction markets for Mars Program

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.29%chance

21801950044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4966

3795

Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?

Sep 23, 2:14 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

5110479

OptionProbability

Starship

High Speed Rail

50

50

Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?

Mar 1, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.2%chance

232196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

909

11

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

When will Starship land on Mars?

Jul 21, 12:54 AMJan 21, 12:44 AM

171401

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?

Dec 24, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5122

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Economy

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Environment and sustainability

Society

Space Exploration

Art and culture

Human Rights

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

76

76

75

74

50

50

50

34

34

34

34

Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?

Jun 19, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.2%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

27

Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 26, 1:28 AMDec 10, 1:29 PM

52%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

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