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Prediction markets for Mars Program

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

46.04%chance

20781816806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4697

4012

Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?

Sep 23, 2:14 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

417573

OptionProbability

Starship

High Speed Rail

62

38

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?

Mar 1, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

211812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

569

18

When will Starship land on Mars?

Jul 21, 12:54 AMJan 21, 12:44 AM

141208

OptionProbability

2029

Never

2031

Later than 2032

2032

2030

2027

2028

2026

Other

28

20

19

16

5

4

3

3

1

1

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?

Dec 24, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4102

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Economy

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Environment and sustainability

Art and culture

Society

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Space Exploration

Human Rights

76

76

75

74

50

50

50

50

50

34

34

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