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Prediction markets for Mars Program

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

21101878813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4797

3929

Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?

Sep 23, 2:14 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

448601

OptionProbability

Starship

High Speed Rail

55

45

Will the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?

Sep 8, 2:40 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

78.3%chance

152046

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1899

526

Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?

Mar 1, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.9%chance

211833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

719

14

When will Starship land on Mars?

Jul 21, 12:54 AMJan 21, 12:44 AM

171401

OptionProbability

Later than 2032

2031

Never

2029

2032

2028

2030

2026

2027

Other

48

18

16

9

3

2

2

1

1

1

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Which positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?

Dec 24, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4102

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Economy

Medical/Healthcare

Fundamental research

Environment and sustainability

Art and culture

Society

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

Space Exploration

Human Rights

76

76

75

74

50

50

50

50

50

34

34

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