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Prediction markets for Material Impact

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?

Dec 23, 6:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

9.39%chance

375999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

929

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?

Dec 23, 6:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

313847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

714

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?

Dec 23, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6%chance

193051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

125

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?

Dec 23, 6:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.86%chance

202450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

921

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Dec 23, 6:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.03%chance

262006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

851

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?

Dec 23, 7:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.98%chance

241012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

812

Will a fat woman destroy a glass bridge with a boulder?

Oct 1, 3:50 AMOct 1, 3:28 AM

5.51%chance

10737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

24

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?

Dec 23, 6:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.79%chance

14736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

981

950

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2032?

Dec 23, 7:31 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16%chance

12497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

184

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will Tesla Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:19 PMDec 31, 9:18 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.3

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

Above 1.5

17

17

17

17

17

17

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